Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
